Are watches a good investment?

Let us start with the uncomfortable reality. The vast majority of luxury watches -- including expensive ones from prestigious brands -- lose value the moment you buy them. A brand-new Omega Speedmaster Professional purchased at retail for $6,500 will sell on the secondary market for approximately $4,500-$5,500 within a year. A new Breitling Navitimer bought for $9,000 might fetch $5,500-$7,000 used. A new TAG Heuer Carrera purchased for $5,500 will likely sell for $3,000-$4,000.

This depreciation is not a flaw -- it is normal consumer goods behavior. You would not expect a car, a suit, or a piece of electronics to appreciate in value. Watches are luxury goods, and luxury goods are consumed. The idea that they should "hold value" or "appreciate" is a relatively recent marketing narrative, heavily promoted during the speculative bubble of 2020-2022.

A small number of watches from a small number of brands have consistently demonstrated value appreciation over extended periods. These are the exceptions, not the rule.

Notice the pattern: these are all stainless steel sports watches from the three most recognized luxury watch brands. Gold dress watches, complicated watches, and models from brands outside the "big three" (plus a few independents) almost never appreciate. A $50,000 gold Patek Philippe Calatrava will sell for $30,000 used. A $20,000 A. Lange & Sohne Saxonia will sell for $12,000-$15,000 used.

Between 2020 and early 2022, luxury watch prices experienced an unprecedented speculative bubble. A confluence of factors drove prices to irrational levels: pandemic stimulus checks, lockdown boredom, social media hype, cryptocurrency wealth, low interest rates, and genuine supply shortages from factory closures.

The correction was brutal for anyone who bought at peak prices. People who paid $50,000 for a steel Daytona in early 2022 lost $20,000 in paper value within 18 months. The lesson was clear: watches are subject to the same speculative dynamics as any other asset, and buying at the top of a hype cycle is a reliable way to lose money.

By 2025, the market stabilized at levels above pre-pandemic norms but well below the speculative peaks. The correction flushed out speculators and flippers, returning the market to buyers who actually intended to wear their watches.

If your primary goal is growing wealth, watches are objectively inferior to traditional investments. Here is the honest comparison:

Even the best-performing watch references underperform a simple S&P 500 index fund when you account for insurance, servicing, and the risk of damage or theft. The Nautilus 5711 is an extreme outlier, not a representative example of watch investing.

If you want to enjoy a watch while minimizing financial loss, here are strategies that actually work:

The best reason to buy a watch is because you love it. A mechanical watch is a miniature machine on your wrist -- hundreds of components working in harmony to measure time, powered by nothing more than a coiled spring. It is one of the last purely mechanical devices most people interact with daily.

Watches mark moments. The watch you buy for your wedding, your graduation, a career milestone, or a personal achievement carries a meaning that has nothing to do with its resale value. A $300 Seiko Presage bought to celebrate a promotion can be worth more to you than a $30,000 Rolex bought as a speculation.